ConfirmedTrades

Guides

Long-form, plain-English explanations of how track records are verified, what the numbers on an account page mean, and how to vet an EA or signal before you trust it.

• EA development · 8 min read · 19 Aug 2026

  From backtest to live: what to monitor every week once your EA is running

  A weekly checklist for a live Expert Advisor: heartbeat, execution costs in points, rolling expectancy and win rate, losing streaks, drawdown and review flags.

• EA development · 8 min read · 10 Aug 2026

  Position sizing and risk of ruin for algo traders: fixed-fractional, Kelly and the ruin equation

  The lot size decides whether a profitable Expert Advisor survives. Fixed-fractional sizing, the Kelly criterion and risk of ruin explained with worked numbers.

• EA development · 8 min read · 27 Jul 2026

  Drawdown anatomy for EA developers: balance vs equity, depth, duration and recovery

  Max drawdown is one number hiding four. Balance vs equity drawdown, why depth, duration and recovery all matter, the Ulcer index, and the permanent ledger.

• EA development · 8 min read · 13 Jul 2026

  How many trades before you trust your EA? Sample size, Monte Carlo and the Z-score

  Forty trades is an anecdote. How to work out the sample size your Expert Advisor needs, what a 1,000-run Monte Carlo adds, and how the Z-score catches streaks.

• EA development · 8 min read · 29 Jun 2026

  Backtest vs forward test: overfitting explained for EA developers

  Why a beautiful MT4/MT5 strategy tester report usually dies live. Curve fitting, degrees of freedom, walk-forward testing and backtest-to-forward degradation.

• EA development · 8 min read · 15 Jun 2026

  EA statistics that actually matter: the metric matrix for judging your first Expert Advisor

  Net profit tells you almost nothing. The expectancy, profit factor, drawdown, Sharpe and sample-size numbers that decide whether an EA keeps working.